Corn futures traded into technical resistance to start the week, offering producers an excellent opportunity to manage risk into a week filled with uncertainty surrounding weather and the WASDE report. The WASDE report was a big dud, with little changed from last month. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise, it's not in the USDA's process to change yields often in the June report. With that said, it is in the process of many other market participants, to adjust yield with the current crop conditions.
So, we believe it's highly unlikely that the market is trading a 181.5 corn yield. Coming into the week, we had a mostly bearish bias for new crop corn against technical resistance, but that changed yesterday afternoon. We felt that there was reason for the market to selloff based on the headline numbers, but it didn't. That's what we call a fundamental rejection, and that speaks volumes to us. If the market can revisit and chew through the 540-550 level we believe we could see an extension back to trendline resistance, which goes back to the highs from last April.
Below is an updated look at the weekly Commitment of Traders report. There was little change in the holdings. Longs liquidated about 10k futures and options contracts and shorts covered about 12k.
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Categories: South Dakota, Crops, Corn, Weather