By Jamie Martin
U.S. turkey producers are rebuilding supplies after two years of declines, supported by stronger production, healthy domestic demand and growing export sales.
USDA estimates approximately 198.5 million turkeys were raised in the United States in 2026, about 5 million birds, or 3%, more than last year.
It is the first annual increase in turkeys raised since 2023.
The improvement comes after disease-related production losses created significant challenges for the industry. Although the outlook is improving, an American Farm Bureau Federation analysis indicates disease and feed costs remain important risks heading into 2027.
Turkey Production Climbs 6%
The increase in bird numbers is translating into higher meat production.
USDA's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected federally inspected U.S. turkey meat production at approximately 5.13 billion pounds in 2026.
That's about 290 million pounds, or 6%, above 2025.
USDA expects another modest increase in 2027, with production forecast to reach approximately 5.18 billion pounds.
Even with those gains, production remains below the roughly 5.46 billion pounds recorded in 2023.
Minnesota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri continue to dominate U.S. turkey production. Together, the five states accounted for approximately 68% of turkeys raised during 2026.
Demand and Exports Support Market
The return of additional supplies has so far been accompanied by solid demand.
USDA estimates domestic turkey use at approximately 4.7 billion pounds for 2026, about 4% above the 4.59 billion pounds recorded in 2025.
International demand has also strengthened.
Turkey exports are projected at approximately 461 million pounds in 2026, nearly 10% above the previous year.
Mexico remains the largest foreign customer for U.S. turkey products by a wide margin. Through August, U.S. turkey exports to Mexico were running 6.4% ahead of the same period in 2025.
Strong demand has also helped reduce inventories despite increasing production.
Approximately 360 million pounds of turkey were held in cold storage at the end of September, down about 4.5% from a year earlier and nearly 16% from 2024.
Prices Remain Strong
Relatively tight inventories combined with strong demand have supported turkey prices.
USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts the 2026 average wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys at about $1.76 per pound.
That would be approximately 30% higher than 2025 and nearly 88% above the 94-cent average recorded in 2024.
Disease-related reductions in production have played an important role in that increase.
Farm-level prices are more difficult to track because of the highly integrated structure of the turkey industry, but available indicators suggest producer returns have improved substantially from recent years.
The challenge will be maintaining those margins as supplies continue rebuilding.
USDA currently projects the average wholesale turkey price will fall to approximately $1.45 per pound in 2027, about 18% below the projected 2026 average.
Feed Costs Add Another Challenge
Feed expenses could compound the impact of lower turkey prices.
Feed represents roughly two-thirds of the total cost of raising a market turkey. Raising a 38-pound tom typically requires approximately 75 to 80 pounds of feed.
USDA's October projections put the average farm price for corn at $4.70 per bushel, 13% higher than in 2025.
Soybean meal is projected to average $340 per ton, about 4.5% higher than last year.
That creates a potentially difficult combination for producers if turkey prices soften at the same time that feed remains relatively expensive.
HPAI and aMPV Remain Wild Cards
Disease also remains a significant threat to the industry's recovery.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza continues circulating among wild birds and can pose heightened risks to commercial poultry operations during migration.
As of Oct. 27, USDA had recorded 25 HPAI poultry detections during October. Seven involved commercial turkey flocks, with more than 250,000 turkeys affected during the month.
Another disease is also creating problems for growers.
Avian metapneumovirus, or aMPV, can reduce weight gain and feed efficiency, introducing additional costs at a time when feed is already the industry's largest production expense.
Research cited by the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates aMPV affected between 60% and 80% of U.S. turkey flocks in 2024 and reduced industry value by approximately $2.88 billion.
2027 Could Test the Recovery
The turkey sector enters 2027 in a stronger position than it did a year ago.
Bird numbers have increased, production is recovering, domestic demand remains healthy and exports have expanded.
But the next stage of the recovery could prove more challenging.
Higher production could pressure wholesale prices, while corn and soybean meal costs remain important considerations for growers. Another significant HPAI outbreak or continued aMPV problems could quickly disrupt production.
That leaves flock health, feed costs, domestic consumption and exports as four of the biggest indicators to watch in 2027.
After two years of contraction, the U.S. turkey industry is growing again. Whether that recovery translates into sustained profitability for producers will depend on keeping both disease and production costs under control.
Photo Credit: American Farm Bureau Federation
Categories: National