By Jamie Martin
Global agriculture is facing growing uncertainty as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affect trade flows and input supplies. According to the FAO, the crisis is already impacting food systems worldwide.
“This is not only an energy shock. It is a systematic shock affecting agrifood systems globally,” said Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Máximo Torero.
With tanker traffic falling sharply, global supply chains are under pressure. The Gulf region plays a major role in supplying sulfur, a key material used to produce fertilizers. Any disruption in this supply can affect fertilizer production worldwide.
Shipping challenges have increased costs significantly. War-risk insurance premiums have surged, adding financial pressure to global trade. These higher costs are now being passed down to farmers.
Fertilizer prices are already rising, and FAO expects them to stay high if the crisis continues. At the same time, rising fuel prices are increasing the cost of farm operations such as irrigation, machinery use, and transportation.
Farmers may respond by reducing fertilizer use or choosing crops that require fewer inputs, such as soybeans. However, reduced fertilizer use can lead to lower yields, especially for important crops like wheat, rice, and maize.
The impact of the crisis will depend on how long it will last. A short disruption may be manageable, but a longer one could affect global planting decisions and reduce food production.
Several countries are at higher risk, including India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and nations in Africa. These regions depend heavily on imports and are sensitive to rising costs.
FAO recommends immediate global cooperation. Short-term solutions include alternative trade routes and financial support. Long-term strategies should focus on sustainable farming and new fertilizer technologies to reduce dependence on global supply chains.
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