By Jamie Martin
A new outlook from RaboResearch indicates that the global pork industry will face uneven growth in 2026 as production and trade patterns continue to change. Industry conditions will be shaped by biosecurity concerns, disease pressures, high investment costs, and shifting trade policies across major pork-producing and importing countries.
“The driving forces for growth vary by region,” said Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein for RaboResearch. “Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the US, China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China. Production in 2H 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, largely driven by the herd reduction in China and Spain. In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”
Global pork production is expected to rise during the first half of 2026. This increase will be supported by moderate growth in the United States, the European Union, and China, along with steady expansion in Brazil. In many regions, productivity improvements are expected to contribute more to growth than herd expansion. China’s large herd size will continue to support output in the early part of the year.
During the second half of 2026, global production growth is expected to slow and could decline in some regions. Herd reductions in China are expected as producers adjust supply to improve market balance. Spain is also expected to reduce herd numbers due to trade limitations linked to animal disease concerns.
Global pork trade is likely to remain uncertain throughout the year. Export growth has been uneven among major suppliers, while key importing countries are adjusting trade policies. New import rules, investigations, and disease-related bans are expected to continue disrupting traditional pork trade flows.
Animal health challenges remain a major concern for the industry. African swine fever continues to limit recovery in parts of Southeast Asia, while PRRS remains a burden on production in North America. These risks highlight the importance of strong disease prevention, efficient production practices, and careful planning as the pork industry moves through 2026.
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