By Scout Nelson
A geopolitical analyst shares concerns about the future of agriculture during a discussion with farmers and ranchers at a South Dakota farm convention. He explains that agriculture is not facing a normal downturn but a deep structural change in how global markets work.
“I’m here to tell you that I don’t think we are going through a cyclical downturn. I think we are going through a fundamental structural change to how global agricultural markets work,” he says. “I think everything we know about cycles before we need to throw out the window. We need to think about the world as it is, and as it is changing around us now.”
He explains that many countries are now working to become more self sufficient. While the United States imports more food than it exports the rest of the world is increasing local production. He points to India as an example where pulse production has nearly doubled in twenty years despite doubts from experts. This growth reduces the global market share for U.S. exports.
The analyst says this shift is happening because the world is no longer led by a single dominant power. He explains that farmers today are living in a multipolar world where power is shared among many countries rather than one.
“I don’t care how long you’ve been farming. I don’t care how many books you’ve read. None of you in this room have lived in a multipolar, geopolitical context,” he explains.
He adds that global trust in the U.S. dollar is changing and that trade decisions are becoming more political. He warns that trade conflicts and tariffs are pushing other nations to seek new partners. Because the U.S. depends heavily on imported electronics and medical supplies this shift could affect consumers and farmers alike.
Using egg and beef markets as examples he explains how imports during high price periods hurt domestic producers.
Despite these challenges he shares a few positive areas for farmers. He says energy crops and niche markets may offer opportunities as energy demand continues to grow and countries seek stable supplies.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-stockseller_ukr
Categories: South Dakota, Rural Lifestyle, Farm Safety