Cattle Numbers Fall While Feedlots Stay Stable

By Scout Nelson

Matthew Diersen, Griffith Endowed Professor and SDSU Extension Risk and Business Management Specialist, highlights important changes in cattle supply trends in South Dakota. Recent estimates from the National Agricultural Statistics Service show a continued decline in beef cow numbers, which directly affects the number of calves produced in the state.

Over the past few years, beef cow numbers have steadily decreased. This decline becomes more noticeable after 2021, reaching levels not seen since the late 1970s following a major drought. Fewer cows naturally lead to fewer calves, reducing overall cattle supply. At the same time, dairy cow numbers have increased, which slightly offsets the drop in beef cows. However, calves from dairy cows still make up a small portion of total calf production.

Feedlot numbers remain stable. As of early 2026, total cattle on feed stays consistent, with both large and small feedlots maintaining steady inventories. This stability shows that feedlot operations continue to play a key role in managing cattle supply.

Another important factor is the number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots. This number has increased slightly in recent years. It includes young calves, heavier steers, and non-replacement heifers. Some of this increase comes from heavier animal weights and longer feeding periods, which keep cattle in the system for more time.

Inshipments also contribute to the supply. These are cattle brought into the state from other regions. The level of inshipments remains steady, showing that South Dakota continues to receive cattle from outside sources to support feedlot demand.

Input costs also affect cattle production. Prices for corn and hay have dropped due to better production, helping reduce feeding costs. Pasture rent has decreased slightly, while grazing fees have increased a little. Lower grazing demand from fewer beef cows may help keep costs stable.

Overall, these trends show a changing cattle supply system. Farmers must adjust their strategies to manage fewer calves, stable feedlot demand, and shifting input costs.

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