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Revised USDA numbers predict lower crop yields

Revised USDA numbers predict lower crop yields


By Jamie Martin

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently adjusted its agricultural forecasts, reducing the expected production of soybeans and corn. This unexpected change has implications for both market prices and farm incomes.

Soybean production is now projected at 4.46 billion bushels, a 3% decrease from the previous October forecast, marking a significant shift that could influence market dynamics. Seth Meyer, a USDA economist, noted this revision as the largest October-to-November change since the drought-impacted year of 2012.

Although corn production estimates saw a slight reduction, the forecast still predicts record yields per acre, indicating a strong overall harvest. However, these robust production figures are expected to maintain pressure on crop prices, thereby affecting farm profitability.

Despite these adjustments, the production levels for both crops are among the highest historically, with soybeans expected to record the second-highest yield and corn the third-highest production. This substantial output continues to saturate the market, which may limit any potential price increases.

Meyer highlighted, “On the bean side, [there was] a pretty late season yield surprise,” but he also cautioned that the abundant supply would likely temper market price improvements. In response to the updates, corn and soybean market prices showed modest increases.

The ongoing U.S. harvest and competitive pricing, particularly against rising soybean prices in Brazil, are pivotal in keeping U.S. commodities viable in the global market. Additionally, the U.S. soybean oil market is gaining traction due to higher palm oil prices influenced by trade restrictions in Indonesia.

These factors collectively underscore the complexity of agricultural production and market interdependencies, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the farming sector.

Photo Credit: usda


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