By Jamie Martin
A new study highlights major risks ahead for U.S. corn growers and their insurers as climate change accelerates. Researchers project a 22 percent rise in insurance claims by 2030 and up to 29 percent by 2050 if weather patterns continue worsening.
Published in the Journal of Data Science, Statistics, and Visualisation, the study warns of economic uncertainty for farmers and federal crop insurers. “Crop insurance has increased 500 percent since the early 2000s, and our simulations show that insurance costs will likely double again by 2050,” said lead author Sam Pottinger of UC Berkeley.
Researchers at UC Berkeley and the University of Arkansas created an AI-powered tool to simulate crop conditions through 2050. If conditions stay the same, insurance claims would remain steady. However, under climate change scenarios, claims could spike sharply.
Currently, federal crop insurance, provided by the USDA, protects most U.S. farmers based on annual crop yields. The study found not only more claims but also a 19 percent rise in claim severity by 2050.
Co-author Lawson Conner said, “For example, we found that insurance companies could see the average covered portion of a claim increase up to 19 percent by 2050.”
To address these risks, researchers suggest encouraging farmers to adopt practices like cover cropping and crop rotation through small farm bill changes. Another option involves using USDA’s 508(h) mechanism to promote alternative insurance products.
Co-author Timothy Bowles noted, “We are already seeing more intense droughts, longer heat waves, and more catastrophic floods.” He stressed that new measures could better protect growers and insurers in the future.
Without adaptation, both farmers and insurance providers could face massive financial strain by midcentury.
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Categories: National